Like I said, there's always a market for peddling doom and gloom... just look at Zerohedge and Mish. Rarely right about anything yet they attract huge traffic volumes. There are a lot of people in the world who feel entitled to more than they can currently afford, for a price lower than everyone else is willing to pay... and these sites feed them hope... feed their dreams.
We're building towards a home construction boom
- Thread starter Shadow
- Start date
Leith called it a 'slow melt', and the owner of the site, David Llewellyn-Smith, in 2011 predicted falling house prices in real and nominal terms for the next decade...
''it is a near certainty that Australian housing will lose value in nominal and real terms for the next decade'
He's already been proved wrong on that one, with house prices rising over the past year, and Sydney currently at a brand new all-time-high peak.
Hi Shadow, the only mention that I can see of crash in that article is where David says it would be very damaging if a housing strike caused one... so (as per usual) you are being disingenuous with your portrayal of the views expressed on MB (which says more about you than MB).
Furthermore you claim David is wrong, but housing is down in real and nominal terms from the time of the article.
Residex (Australia):
March 2011: $441,500 - Houses, $402,000 - Units
April 2013: $437,000 - Houses, $399,500 - Units
ABS (Weighted Average of 8 Capital Cities):
March 2011: 147.3
March 2013: 146
Yes they have bounced over the last 12 months, but you are trying to make the prediction something it wasn't.
For the record I wouldn't be surprised to see property prices lower in real terms than the peak (in 2021, a decade after the article), but doubt that nominal prices would be that low.
Exactly, it's a ridiculous prediction.
He said it was a near certainty that house prices will fall in nominal terms for the next decade.
Even an average 1% nominal decline per annum would leave prices more than 45% down in real terms, assuming 3% pa CPI.
That's a crash. It's bigger than the crash predicted by Steve Keen.
(Keen said his 40% crash was based in both real and nominal terms because he expected zero CPI inflation)
Glenn Stevens speech yesterday.
"Likewise, dwelling investment has been low for an unusually long period, with at least some households intent on reducing debt, thereby strengthening balance sheets. Households have accumulated a good deal of cash as well over recent years. Meanwhile, population growth is quite solid and it has been picking up a bit of late. If anything, we will need to build more dwellings than we have been over recent years. Meanwhile, interest rates are low, dwellings are more ‘affordable’, and finance approvals for housing purchases have risen by 16 per cent over the past year. So there are ‘fundamentals’ that favour a pick-up in these sectors."
Perhaps this is indicating that with the slowdown of mining investment, (the BOOM is not over we are still digging gear out of the ground at record rates) the reserve bank will encourage policy to boost the construction industry?
"Likewise, dwelling investment has been low for an unusually long period, with at least some households intent on reducing debt, thereby strengthening balance sheets. Households have accumulated a good deal of cash as well over recent years. Meanwhile, population growth is quite solid and it has been picking up a bit of late. If anything, we will need to build more dwellings than we have been over recent years. Meanwhile, interest rates are low, dwellings are more ‘affordable’, and finance approvals for housing purchases have risen by 16 per cent over the past year. So there are ‘fundamentals’ that favour a pick-up in these sectors."
Perhaps this is indicating that with the slowdown of mining investment, (the BOOM is not over we are still digging gear out of the ground at record rates) the reserve bank will encourage policy to boost the construction industry?
we are just shifting of coal and iron ore into LNG and other resources sector, china is slowing down on building development.
i am seeing positive eitherway australia does need more houses to slow down the house prices rise due to shortages. in terms reduce the bubble and we wont have a crash like other countries.
i am seeing positive eitherway australia does need more houses to slow down the house prices rise due to shortages. in terms reduce the bubble and we wont have a crash like other countries.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/07/dwelling-completions-show-lack-of-rebalancing/
Sure is a slow start to the construction boom!
Another plug for your MacroGloom website?
That data is for completions. Approvals and starts have surged, especially in Sydney.
But as usual your doom & gloom site spins everything in the most negative light. How's your recession and 'slow melt' coming along?
ABS Update Highlights the Challenge Ahead of New Home Building
Poor 'ol Harley at the HIA could do with some Shadow-tinted glasses. Do you have a spare pair?
“Even allowing for a higher GFC stimulus-induced peak in 2010, the subsequent drop in dwelling commencements (housing starts) over 2011 and 2012 remains significant,” said Harley Dale. “The further decline of 5.5 per cent in dwelling commencements in the March 2013 quarter reinforces how much work lies ahead to ensure a new home building recovery is both sustainable and of a magnitude that reflects Australia’s housing and wider economic needs.”
“The number of dwelling commencements fell in five out of six states in the first quarter of 2013, while a flat result was recorded for New South Wales. On a six month annualised basis, dwelling commencements continue to track well below the housing requirements of the population in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory.”
On the upside, ongoing underbuilding means your "mother of all crashes" prediction also remains in the realms of fantasy.
Poor 'ol Harley at the HIA could do with some Shadow-tinted glasses. Do you have a spare pair?
“Even allowing for a higher GFC stimulus-induced peak in 2010, the subsequent drop in dwelling commencements (housing starts) over 2011 and 2012 remains significant,” said Harley Dale. “The further decline of 5.5 per cent in dwelling commencements in the March 2013 quarter reinforces how much work lies ahead to ensure a new home building recovery is both sustainable and of a magnitude that reflects Australia’s housing and wider economic needs.”
“The number of dwelling commencements fell in five out of six states in the first quarter of 2013, while a flat result was recorded for New South Wales. On a six month annualised basis, dwelling commencements continue to track well below the housing requirements of the population in New South Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Western Australia, and the Northern Territory.”
On the upside, ongoing underbuilding means your "mother of all crashes" prediction also remains in the realms of fantasy.
Flat for Sydney last quarter but the data is notoriously volatile, and the surge in prior quarters for NSW was very strong.
I think you have me confused with Steve Keen. First time for everything I suppose.
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I doubt it. Why do you ask?
Apparently
Shhhh.....there's a boom coming
Is it just me, or is there a change on this forum?
Will retiring Baby Boomer's affect the market, along with the children of the Baby Boomer's who have already started their own families wanting there own homes also
An increase in immigration seems necessary,but where will the migrants actually come from (South America, Africa, or the Middle East ?)
Robert Kiyosaki's – “Prophecy” was an interesting read
When the Baby boomers start retiring, will they will cash in their investments (Shares, IP, Gold) and cause a general bust in all investment markets
Shhhh.....there's a boom coming
Is it just me, or is there a change on this forum?
Will retiring Baby Boomer's affect the market, along with the children of the Baby Boomer's who have already started their own families wanting there own homes also
An increase in immigration seems necessary,but where will the migrants actually come from (South America, Africa, or the Middle East ?)
Robert Kiyosaki's – “Prophecy” was an interesting read
When the Baby boomers start retiring, will they will cash in their investments (Shares, IP, Gold) and cause a general bust in all investment markets
People read too much in to the words of a few individuals who notoriously spurt prophecies in mainstream media.
Even on this forum, there are probably no shortage of people or people whose famileis are far more succssful than them, who probably don't share their views.
Even on this forum, there are probably no shortage of people or people whose famileis are far more succssful than them, who probably don't share their views.
when I read these sorts of stats, I can't help thinking about the two rats in a cage scenario.Somethink to think about
And the problem is, it's not the upper end of financial and education sections of the population who are producing the vast bulk of that growth.
And with manufacturing on the decline, and in a stagnating economy....where will they get jobs?
HIA actuals & forecasts
2011 155.41
2012 151.51
2013 151.52
2014 151.60
2015 156.33
Clearly this is a topic that shadow has no competence in, just like all those others predicting and touting booms every month for the last few years.
2011 155.41
2012 151.51
2013 151.52
2014 151.60
2015 156.33
Clearly this is a topic that shadow has no competence in, just like all those others predicting and touting booms every month for the last few years.
