We're building towards a home construction boom

[Piston Broke]

I side with myself mainly.
Never needed anyone else to form an opinion.


There is a difference between "hindsight is always right"
and "what you posted is just bullocks and makes no sense" or
just doesn't correspond with reality.

Shadow is a definite runner for the gold medal.
Only because a few others, with their delusional trading "dollar cost" trading schemes, disappeared into the shadows.

 

[Spades]

Fair enough.

 

[Piston Broke]

I should point out that i have seen, from an investor's perspective, a few RE cycles/crashes/crunches/"this time is different" etc etc.
Things do become predictable after a few decades.

And I kinda missed the banter, and the great posters round here

 

[Shadow]

HIA actuals & forecasts

2011 155.41
2012 151.51
2013 151.52
2014 151.60
2015 156.33

Clearly this is a topic that shadow has no competence in, just like all those others predicting and touting booms every month for the last few years.

Sydney house prices are at an all-time record high, according to all the index providers (ABS, APM, Residex and RPData).

Sydney construction activity is at a ten-year high... http://www.theadviser.com.au/breaking-news/28987-ten-year-high-for-housing

Sydney house prices are booming right now (up 5% last quarter alone, up 12% since mid-2012, and forecast to continue rising strongly for the next few years)...

http://www.rpdata.com/research/back_series.html

Sydney auction clearance rates are also at an all-time record high, above 80% consistently for the past two months...

http://news.domain.com.au/domain/re...wow-us-again-this-weekend-20130927-2uir4.html

The boom is here PB.

 

[Shadow]

Shadow is a definite runner for the gold medal.

Cheers PB. Yes, I've been pretty close with most of my calls. Glad I didn't listen to the silly bears who have been warning me about imminent 40% crashes since 2007, otherwise I'd have missed out on a lot of capital growth...

 

[Aaron_C]

Cheers PB. Yes, I've been pretty close with most of my calls. Glad I didn't listen to the silly bears who have been warning me about imminent 40% crashes since 2007, otherwise I'd have missed out on a lot of capital growth...

They were saying it 40 years ago as well. Just that these days a lot of the whingers get on to The Age comments sections and complain over there instead of just at the BBQ.

 

[Piston Broke]

Sydney house prices are at an all-time record high, according to all the index providers (ABS, APM, Residex and RPData).

The boom is here PB.

As always your wrong.
And those silly charts are meaningless.

Sure sooner or later over a 15 yr period you will be right...till then you WRONG.

You bought a property, and like most noobs (and hens who just laid an egg) set out to tell the world, and justify that you got in just before the boom.

Median prices are worthless.

Specially to those like you that don't have the analytical skills to read inside them.
Knowing how to read them could've doubled your purchase price. But you don't know who to listen too.
The *real* market reality is a bich

 

[Shadow]

As always your wrong

you WRONG

Median prices are worthless

reality is a bich

I post facts and data.

In response, you post a fact-free data-free rant, littered with spelling and grammar errors, some personal abuse, and BIG BOLD FONTS.

LOL, that's some of your best work right there PB, well done.

I guess the fact that house prices are still booming, instead of crashing 40% like Steve Keen promised, is really getting on the nerves of some bears...

Now, can you please teach me how to 'read inside' those 'worthless' median prices?

Median prices are worthless.
Specially to those like you that don't have the analytical skills to read inside them.
Knowing how to read them could've doubled your purchase price. But you don't know who to listen too.

Yes! Yes! I want to double my purchase price. Clearly this is the key to investing. Buy high! Can I please triple my purchase price? Quadruple it? I want to pay as much as possible. Teach me!

 

[redwing]

Sometimes it's like a tennis match on here

 

[Piston Broke]

Actually you re post opinion pieces written by others elsewhere that seem to fit your mindset and justify your purchase (to yourself). Just like a chick buying an expensive handbag.
Your ignorance and incompetence in terms of RE is well documented on this forum over many years, that's not "personal abuse" it's fact.
Not to mention your association with bankrupt investment schemes & enterprises.

As usual you can only mention other people, you have no substance of your own.
I have never agreed or touted Keen as anything on this forum, though prices did on a few occasions reach 40% drops.
Lets look at you posting over the years and check up your record.
Should i start quoting all that nonsense?
Nah waste of pixels.

Median prices are useless and have always been.
After many years we can go back to all and any posts here quoting or using them as forecasts and see where they are at.
Once again you have show no mental capacity to discuss or analyze RE investing, just throwing mud against a wall.

Eat your heart out on a plastic tray
You don't do what you want
Then you'll fade away
You won't find me working Nine to five
It's too much fun a being alive
I'm using my feet for my human machine
You won't find me living for the screen
Are you lonely all your needs catered
You got your brains dehydrated

Problem, problem Problem, the problem is you

 

[Shadow]

Your ignorance and incompetence in terms of RE is well documented...

Once again you have show no mental capacity to discuss or analyze RE investing, just throwing mud against a wall.

Yet I have been right and you bears have been totally wrong, for many years.

No crash, instead house prices at new record highs, and rising very fast. Positively booming in Sydney, where my IPs are.

The only thing that crashed 40% is gold. Looks like Steve Keen got the magnitude right, but the asset class wrong.

Not to mention your association with bankrupt investment schemes & enterprises

Well, since you mentioned it, perhaps you can elaborate on whatever it is you are ranting about?

Median prices are useless and have always been

The major house price indices (ABS, Residex, APM and RPData) are not raw medians.

They all use stratification/hedonics/repeat sales methods to create their indices, correcting for compositional bias.

And they ALL show house prices at new record highs, and rising strongly.

So you are ranting from a position of ignorance again, but hey, keep waiting for the big crash... it might come along in a few years time, after this boom ends.

But between now and then, those of us holding property will have made a of of money.

 

[Token Funder]

Meanwhile, in the real world....

Our mate at HIA has got his latest out.

Today?s ABS release of housing data includes crucial information regarding dwelling commencements, and confirms a modest increase for 2012/13 following two consecutive yearly declines, said the Housing Industry Association (HIA), the voice of Australia?s residential building industry.

Link here

For those of you who came in late:

• Shadow's predicted housing construction boom starting in 10/11 proved to be a two year decline starting in 10/11.
• As a consequence, Shadow's expected construction-induced crash in property prices starting in 2016 will likely prove just as wide of the mark. In fact, based on past performance, if Shad says crash, expect a boom.
• On the upside for those of us in the construction finance caper, a modest recovery in construction is underway.
• The downside is we're still not building as many homes as we were a decade ago.

My own prediction: Shadow will be incapable of accepting he got it wrong nor, more importantly, understanding why.

 

[atti]

this is true if we dont stop the boats and let in more people to fuel the boom

 

[Shadow]

My own prediction: Shadow will be incapable of accepting he got it wrong nor, more importantly, understanding why.

LOL, Sydney construction activity is at a ten year high and house prices are booming (from already record high levels).

Yet the guy who predicted a property crash driven by credit tightening tells me I got it wrong.

Too funny!

Glad I put my money where my mouth is and leveraged up on Sydney property before this boom.

I trust you're making out like a bandit too TF?

Don't worry if you're not, you can always pretend to claim some internet victory, which is much more useful than a million dollars in capital growth over a few years...

 

[TMNT]

www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-glut-to-weigh-on-house-prices-20131015-2vktr.html

So does this mean that the median price in melbournec is going to be subdued compared to Sydney for the next five years for example, while the good properties on blood blocks or good locations will be booming just like Sydney, but not showing up on the city stats due to inner city apartments bringing the average down

I think so

Is Melbourne bracing for a boom?

 

[tambourineman]

There is no house construction boom because our banker friends make it harder to get loans for new builds, to control supply and maintain the high cost of established homes.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

There is no house construction boom because our banker friends make it harder to get loans for new builds, to control supply and maintain the high cost of established homes.

sorry mate but this is simply not true at all.

Instead its because our consumer mugs and institutional debt buyers wont buy securitised debt at any price under any circumstances.

More difficult securitisation process compared to pre GFC, more stringent lending practices.

 

[Intrinsic_Value]

www.theage.com.au/victoria/city-glut-to-weigh-on-house-prices-20131015-2vktr.html

So does this mean that the median price in melbournec is going to be subdued compared to Sydney for the next five years for example, while the good properties on blood blocks or good locations will be booming just like Sydney, but not showing up on the city stats due to inner city apartments bringing the average down

I think so

Is Melbourne bracing for a boom?

Melbourne wont boom to the same extent, that's a given. Its simply a matter of relative cycles.

 

[tambourineman]

sorry mate but this is simply not true at all.

Instead its because our consumer mugs and institutional debt buyers wont buy securitised debt at any price under any circumstances.

More difficult securitisation process compared to pre GFC, more stringent lending practices.

sorry i dont follow - how does this justify banks making it easier to get loans for established property vs new builds.

they have a vested interest in maintaining high prices for established homes.

new supply would theoretically reduce the price of established homes.

 

[atti]

unless the credit tap is open for everyone like old days of 110% loans for new houses, 80% only for established house gets legislated i dont think no boom is coming as construction costs still rising, construction companies go broke left right and center. on the other hand apparently chinese buyers are paying 1 mil over reserves for luxury mansions in sydney.