Where do you expect the East coast Capital city market to be in 3 years time.
- Thread starter see_change
- Start date
5+ year horizon??
I know this is a tangent to this thread, but if we stretched the horizon out (or maybe shorter depending on when and how fast IR rise), does anyone think there will be a stabilising or correction with people selling who have budgeted at today's rates rather than taking into account an increase in the IR (as the doomsday media is saying...)??
Oh, but for the record, I think that prices will increase by 5-20% in the next 3 years as if there would be a correction, it would occur in 5 or more years.
I know this is a tangent to this thread, but if we stretched the horizon out (or maybe shorter depending on when and how fast IR rise), does anyone think there will be a stabilising or correction with people selling who have budgeted at today's rates rather than taking into account an increase in the IR (as the doomsday media is saying...)??
Oh, but for the record, I think that prices will increase by 5-20% in the next 3 years as if there would be a correction, it would occur in 5 or more years.
Not necessarily
In the 80's prices went up as rates went up as people raced to buy so they could lock rates in ....
Cliff
certainly not last time when melbourne went off in the middle of a financial collapse. I wasn't aware of an historical link between these 2 cities but I haven't really followed them much pre-2000
Sydney was up last time as well. Just not as much
Their roles are reversed this time.
Over time both markets move closely.
That's right. In Sydney, it's the west that's moving quickest. Its clearance rates are actually in the 90s.
In Melbourne, the west is the drag on the market right now. Without the west, clearance rates will be in the 80s.
In Melbourne, the west is the drag on the market right now. Without the west, clearance rates will be in the 80s.
I think there is a danger of seeing patterns that aren't there - Lomas's theory that melb broke ranks during the gfc makes sense to me. she reckons melbourne faces imminent correction - I have no idea about that, tho given the mining downturn that would stack up, even tho the mining collapse has ended for now.
I voted investing less than 5 years, with growth 20-50%, but then realised we've been investing over 5 years now, whoops!
I definitely see growth of 20-50% in the next few years.
Sydney has been building up price pressures for a number of years, and the rate cuts last year turn on the taps and buyers have come out in force, driving up prices.
Out in my area (the Hills), we now see awful houses listing as offers over $800k, and then selling for a low-mid $900k.
You know the market is hot out here when just about everything is going to auction, and if it isn't, it's sold on the first open home.
Brisbane might take another couple of years before it starts moving again i think.
I definitely see growth of 20-50% in the next few years.
Sydney has been building up price pressures for a number of years, and the rate cuts last year turn on the taps and buyers have come out in force, driving up prices.
Out in my area (the Hills), we now see awful houses listing as offers over $800k, and then selling for a low-mid $900k.
You know the market is hot out here when just about everything is going to auction, and if it isn't, it's sold on the first open home.
Brisbane might take another couple of years before it starts moving again i think.
Well if the past 6 months are anything to go by, she's been proven wrong.
why would you say that? to me it stands out as the most prime to go (major) market in the entire country
Why do you think it will "go"?
Can you elaborate?
some reasons off the top of my head... it hasn't performed for a long time, the collapse of the mining boom has ended and Brisbane is quite exposed to that, it will benefit of the cheap effect vs Syd/Melb, property generally has wind behind its sails for the foreseeable future.
this question may be better phrased as why not?
Also it's seeing signs of moving . Central areas have ( from what I'm told ) have move price wise . Certainly more sales , less stock on market and in some places limited coming on .
We've bought and just waiting to settle . In the 1-2 weeks between first looking and going to Brisbane , almost half of the properties we were initially interested in went under offer .
In sydney at the same time we were told there was lots of stock about to come on the market . In Brisbane the agents were complaining about lack of future stock .
Cliff
Similar to what See_Change and Ausprop have said, and these guys are FAR more experienced than little old me.
I see Brisbane as value because it has had its little correction, market has been down for a while there, and because it is a slightly contrarian view to everyone else thereby making it easier to pick up a bargain.
Im very much a believer in that you make your money when you buy - buying right is imperative. Buying in Sydney right now you have very very little chance of getting a bargain since the market has already turned.
gees give her a chance, she only said it 2 days ago
The main correction happened in 2011-2012 where prices were down almost 10%.
No doubt after this run there'll be a pull back, not sure if it'll be anything like the 2011-12 correction though.
Similar threads
