See above
Cliff
Got a figure in mind though?
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See above
Cliff
Actually this time....the A,B, and C stuff....
The clock just struck mind night...if you are Cinderella...you better get in carriage before the carriage and horses into pumpkins and mice.
But the thing Sash, as you posted 'regret'
You did regret the two properties you sold..
Got a figure in mind though?
At some stage the median price in Sydney with reach five mill .
Cliff
Come on Cliff - this cycle.
I'm going for close to 1.3 mill
Wishful thinking. Hockey is talking about doing the opposite... increasing demand by letting FHBs use their super to buy property. The NSW government is talking about allowing stamp duty to be paid off over five years.I think we'll see a crack down on foreign buying, changes to negative gearing & potentially some controls on investor lending (macro-prudential) announced this year, if not implemented.
That was also your guess last year and the year before. If you make the same guess every year then eventually you might get it right.my guess is for a nominal peak this year
It's almost certain to hit $1 million this year (as measured by the Residex index). Assuming interest rates are cut another two times, I expect the peak to be 2017.Come on Cliff - this cycle.
I'm going for close to 1.3 mill
I'd be surprised if that gets legs, already getting slammed from the left & right on this suggestion.Wishful thinking. Hockey is talking about doing the opposite... increasing demand by letting FHBs use their super to buy property.
Don't recall making any recent Sydney specific predictions, except those I made late last year about expecting a peak this year... can you link to where I said they'd peak in 2014 or 2013?That was also your guess last year and the year before. If you make the same guess every year then eventually you might get it right.
The NSW government is talking about allowing stamp duty to be paid off over five years.
That was also your guess last year and the year before. If you make the same guess every year then eventually you might get it right.
I don't know how long this will go on but I think that pepole who predict a certain date or year as a turning point etc are fooling them selves.
Then:I'll leave the guessing games to other . I think it just detracts for the aim of making money .
Logic says the peak will be some time 2016 -18 .
Then:
Did you see change? I saw it.
It was on twitter - when the ratio of investors in Sydney reached 2003 levels you said that marked the peak because it had marked the peak in 2003.Don't recall making any recent Sydney specific predictions, except those I made late last year about expecting a peak this year... can you link to where I said they'd peak in 2014 or 2013?
My prediction hasn't changed for half a decade, and 'by 2015' means the same as 'by the end of 2015'. 2015 lasts for an entire year. You're just mad because you finally realise I was right. Who knows, we might even hit $1.25M before this boom ends. Wouldn't that be nice?If I had, would it be that different to your changing predictions for Sydney, from $1.25m to $1m to "approaching" $1m, then "by 2015" to "by the end of 2015", etc.
Shadow
What was the peak in 2003 ? Looks around 580 from your initial graph
If that's correct , then my expectations would be that we see a peak of around double that at 1,15-6,000
Though hobo , that's my expectation , and not a prediction ....
cliff
It's almost certain to hit $1 million this year (as measured by the Residex index). Assuming interest rates are cut another two times, I expect the peak to be 2017.
I think Sydney now has an emerging bubble.
Based on the latest ABS data, Sydney's house price to income ratio exceeded its previous 2003 peak last quarter.
Sydney house prices are now at a new all time record high relative to incomes...
http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Sydney-Bubble-01.png~original
However, as the next chart shows, low interest rates are keeping Sydney homes relatively affordable.
The ratio of mortgage repayments to income has been much higher in the past (due to higher interest rates)...
http://i187.photobucket.com/albums/x308/LPShadow/Sydney-Bubble-02.png~original
If the RBA keeps interest rates low, or cuts rates further, we are going to see a continued rise in the price/income ratio. It is going to enter very risky and bubbly territory.
This bubble will continue to grow until one of the following happens...
1. Interest rates hit zero and the RBA cannot cut rates any further
2. The RBA raises interest rates by at least 1% (above whatever 'bottom' is eventually reached)
3. The construction boom creates an over-supply of dwellings (keep an eye on vacancy rates)
I'm giving it at least two more years. I think it will probably pop in 2017 as one or more of the above conditions is likely to be in place by then.
When it pops, I think the price/income ratio will fall back to the 'trough' reached in 2008 (see top chart).
just read TWO MSM articles from different media factions all saying "buy now before you get priced out".
we usually know what that means.