NSW election this weekend

[pennyk]

What I think's really interesting about the NSW election results is that Labor appears to have held 21 seats, far more than the 13 or 14 pre-polling indicated.

I think this is one interesting aspect. and I agree that Labor need to honestly evaluate their performance in govt and get rid of the power hungry leaders in their head office.

As Topcropper says, another is the "decimation" of the independents. I think its 3 out of 6 who are gone? People clearly didnt want them to hold balance of power in the lower house.

Another is the fact that the Greens didnt do as well as expected in the lower house, particularly in labor seats. I was watching the "call of the board" on ABC last night. It seemed that Green performance was best in the stronger liberal seats. So, it seems to me that they are winning yuppies votes, but not traditional labor voters. That yuppie voter demographic is not going to get Greens into power, because they are fighting in blue ribbon liberal seats. It will be interesting to see how they perform in the upper house.

 

[Jase H]

Belbo,

13 or 14 was never realistic, from what I read 15 was worst case and 20 more likely.

Also, if everybody used your logic on voting for labor as to not give the libs tooo big a victory than Labor would stay in forever!!!!! You talk of too much power what about Labor being in for 16 friggin years, surely that was too much power.

Jase

 

[Dazz]

It's fabulous hey Daz...!!

Yes mate - a sweet dessert after bitterly losing the main meal late last year.


That's now three states with Liberal Premiers. Hopefully Qld sees the light and does the same. I have a new found respect for Anna Bligh after her excellent personal performance over the new year.....but the Labor party policies still suck big chocky rox.


Just had a squizz on the NSW electoral commission website as of 10 minutes ago and the state of the lower house looks like this ;


Current Composition of Legislative Assembly

Labor Seats..............19
Liberal Seats.............49 (47 needed to form Govt)
National Seats...........17
Green Seats...............1
Independent Seats......1
Undecided..................6

Total: 93


So, the Liberals can form Govt in their own right without the support of the Nationals, but together as a coalition have a thumping majority.


From the data available on the electoral commission website, the six still undecided seats are ;

Ballina...............National..........57% of Primary vote ???
Hornsby.............Liberal............49% of Primary vote.......
Lake Macquarie...Independent....45% of Primary vote.......
Newcastle...........Liberal...........37% of Primary vote.......
Sydney..............Independent....38% of Primary vote.......
Wollongong.........Labor.............37% of Primary vote.......


If those 6 undecided seats fall that way, the parliament will end up looking like ;


Potential Final Composition of Legislative Assembly

Labor Seats..............20
Liberal Seats.............51 (47 needed to form Govt)
National Seats...........18
Green Seats...............1
Independent Seats......3

Total: 93

 

[murph14]

Hopefully Qld sees the light and does the same.

What, with Campbell Newman... I hope not!

So, the Liberals can form Govt in their own right without the support of the Nationals

Hah, the Libs should dump the Nationals. Good times.

 

[The Fence]

Put it up again Daz....just love those numbers...go on...


Too right TC....Windsor has been dealt with in this election, especially in Tamworth...everyone I know are absolutely raging angry about what he did.

What a fool, what a sellout.... he won't be back again anyway, so what does he care...

 

[Dazz]

Windsor has been dealt with in this election, especially in Tamworth...everyone I know are absolutely raging angry about what he did.

Agreed - one of the largest travesties in Australian electoral history with two conservative independents representing very conservative electorates with Labor votes under the 10% mark snuggling up with Labor and the Greens to form this ramshackle temporary Federal Parliament....I'm surprised it's lasted this long.


We wuz robbed !!

 

[twobobsworth]

why do you think public transport for the Hills could be a bad thing?

Its got to be better than paying 100's of dollars every month to sit on the M2.

Not everyone works in the CBD. You have to be mad if you do.

Bring the train line through you'll have massive increases in crime, housing density and local traffic congestion. Look at the community objection to the 18 storey apartment block in Gay Street. Won't be long before it looks as tacky as Hornsby.

Whatever it's expected cost, they will blow out. It's not just about the extra line, I don't believe the northern line and harbour bridge in it's current form can take the extra capacity. It will cost billions to save the city commuters maybe 20 minutes travel time.

Hopefully it increases prices in the area, then we can move on.

 

[pennyk]

Not everyone works in the CBD. You have to be mad if you do.

Bring the train line through you'll have massive increases in crime, housing density and local traffic congestion. Look at the community objection to the 18 storey apartment block in Gay Street. Won't be long before it looks as tacky as Hornsby.

Whatever it's expected cost, they will blow out. It's not just about the extra line, I don't believe the northern line and harbour bridge in it's current form can take the extra capacity. It will cost billions to save the city commuters maybe 20 minutes travel time.

Hopefully it increases prices in the area, then we can move on.

We dont work in the CBD... but my hubby still needs to go on M2 each day to Chatswood, and it would be good to have alternatives. Not just for the time it takes, but also on a train you can read a book or sleep, whereas driving is much more stressful. and its very expensive, and we are only using the M2. not LC tunnel and bridge.

I dont think the Epping-Chatswood line saw such bad social results from the train line. I can imagine there'll be increased housing density along the train route, but I doubt the massive increases in crime will occur, particularly in the Epping- Rouse Hill sector.

 

[Olly]

Caught up with my Dad today - aged 89 with a good sense of humour - and we discussed the recent election. I told him about my call from Bob Hawke and he told me about an envelope he got which had printed on the front "Under No Circumstances Should You Open This Envelope" and there was no clue as to who it was from except a picture of a bloke that Dad didn't recognise.

Needless to say it was someone playing on the human condition of curiosity always getting the better of us and expecting people to open the envelope. Not my Dad! He sent it back with 'RTS' (Return To Sender) written on one side and 'RTS - Unopened As Requested' on the other side!

Turns out it was a pollie that Dad later recognised when watching the election results on TV.

 

[cu@thetop]

Isn't that just typical of the Aussie population....sick back in your comfy chair and sling mud at the people giving it a crack.

I always offer the people who think that pollies get paid way too much for doing nothing, and are rubbish at it in their opinion, to step up to the plate and "put up or shut up".

They always do neither.

Not interested in becoming a public figure. You lose that when you become a Pollie.

As for the slinging mud- I will give you a better analogy: You don't have to be a cook to criticize the cooking.

 

[Deltaberry]

That's right, just because I don't choose to go out there to give it a shot doesn't mean I can't criticise. I thought here people were elected to serve me?!?!?!?!

Eg just because my people at work don't do as they're told doesn't mean I can't criticise them. I'm not going to take up a challenge to do their job or 'shut up' either.

 

[weg]

Caught up with my Dad today - aged 89 with a good sense of humour - and we discussed the recent election. I told him about my call from Bob Hawke and he told me about an envelope he got which had printed on the front "Under No Circumstances Should You Open This Envelope" and there was no clue as to who it was from except a picture of a bloke that Dad didn't recognise.

Needless to say it was someone playing on the human condition of curiosity always getting the better of us and expecting people to open the envelope. Not my Dad! He sent it back with 'RTS' (Return To Sender) written on one side and 'RTS - Unopened As Requested' on the other side!

Turns out it was a pollie that Dad later recognised when watching the election results on TV.

That's funny. I thought of my 85yo FIL reading that - he would have done the same.

FIL has always love talking politics but lately it's more 70's and 80's politics and less of the present day .

Still, he's fit as a fiddle, always out and about, and still enjoying life.

 

[lizzie]

Yes.

And what about all the rural independents who have been booted out? Windsor and Oakshot made fools of a lot of people, myself included. Big protest vote. The bush experiment with independents is well and truely over, and good ridence.

that's what really hit me - the independents were slammed because of the siding that happened in federal parliment.

as soon as they signed up with labour the independents were no longer independent - so what's the point in voting for them? greens pretty much the same.

the big message was: voter beware - make your vote count towards the party you actually want ruling the country.

 

[evand]

Guns & God!

This is a bit of a worry. A bit more so than the Greens siding up with Labor.

http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/ne...farrells-calibre/story-e6freuzi-1226031019118

 

[topcropper]

that's what really hit me - the independents were slammed because of the siding that happened in federal parliment.

as soon as they signed up with labour the independents were no longer independent - so what's the point in voting for them? greens pretty much the same.

the big message was: voter beware - make your vote count towards the party you actually want ruling the country.

Yep. As I've said before, I'm very embarrased that I voted for Windsor. I suppose you assume that an independant of normal intelligence in charge of a seat that has historically been 70% conservative, 30% labor, would go with the coallition most of the time, but have the freedom to swap on the odd occasion. Once Windsor and Oakshot put labor in power, no one out here could believe what they had done.

I think it was you who suggested in Dazz's federal election thread that now that these independants had so much power, that rural people would vote even more for independants. It's just the opposite. Voting for an independant was just a silly little experiment that backfired and made two thirds of an electorate look like fools. It's all over and everyone in the bush has learnt their lesson.

Windsor was even on the local news saying how he will happily stand at the next election.
If only it was true. I'd love to see him get thrown out with a 50% swing, because that is what the result would be. Unfortunately he won't stand, not a chance, and everyone out here won't get to see the floging in the polls that he is due.


See ya's.

 

[Dazz]

Is it really that pronounced out there TC ?? Excellent if it is.

I saw some seats swing in the NSW election by up to 36%, but don't know the area well enough to figure out which state seats equate to the Federal areas held by Windsor and Oakeshot.

Can you tell me what the state seat equivalent areas are so I can look them up and see what the damage was....

I suspect though, at the next Fed election, there will be a similar swing against Labor but not as pronounced as the NSW state election.

All of the welfare hanger-ons in SA, Victoria and Tasmania will continue to vote for them, so it won't be that large.

I think it's pretty clear though that most of the population don't like the major parties being beholden to minor party whims which results in the legislation getting compromised too much.

Frankly, I'm surprised to not have seen the Federal opposition continually challenge the confidence of the Govt by votes....haven't heard of one. With Kevin Rudd overseas for much of the time, that is one vote Labor doesn't have in the parliament....and you just need one or two sick and whammo - job done. I suppose the party whips have all of that side of things well under control so it never happens.....but I'm surprised they haven't had a crack just to test the strain.

 

[pennyk]

Yep. As I've said before, I'm very embarrased that I voted for Windsor. I suppose you assume that an independant of normal intelligence in charge of a seat that has historically been 70% conservative, 30% labor, would go with the coallition most of the time, but have the freedom to swap on the odd occasion. Once Windsor and Oakshot put labor in power, no one out here could believe what they had done.

I can understand the anger twds the Independents, because they have gone against the wishes of their electorate.
But in the end, I think the blame for that has to go to the Coalition. It should have been easy for Tony Abbott to negotiate with them to join his side.

But I think he probably took a hardline/ arrogant approach, whereas Julia took a more conciliatory approach. In the end, I suspect it wasnt so much that they chose Labor, but that they realised it was not going to possible to work with the Coalition.

I suspect a hung parliament with Tony Abbott in charge would have been unworkable. Finding a middle ground and compromising to find a solution are not really his strengths!!

 

[Dazz]

It should have been easy for Tony Abbott to negotiate with them to join his side.

Tony Abbott went to the electorate with a platform of opposing the NBN as a massive waste of money that the Govt didn't have to spend.

Tony Windsor stated that his main reason for choosing to support Labor was he wanted the NBN in his electorate ASAP.

I don't see much middle ground there to negotiate with.

Tony was supposed to be representing his constituents views - not his - and the vast vast majority, over 80% in his electorate, held conservative views aligning with both the National and Liberal parties. He's gone off on a "Tony Windsor thinks" bender and will surely pay a heavy price next election.

By supporting the Greens and Labor - who aren't liked in his electorate - he's done the wrong thing by the people he purportedly represents.

Personality bingles and past ding-dongs obviously outweigh constituent's interests.

 

[HiEquity]

One of the best letters I've had the pleasure to read in a long, long time. Truly poetic in light of current circumstances!

Mr Keating has such a way with words when he puts his mind to it...

 

[The Fence]

By supporting the Greens and Labor - who aren't liked in his electorate - he's done the wrong thing by the people he purportedly represents.

Personality bingles and past ding-dongs obviously outweigh constituent's interests.

he sure did do the wrong thing....I have never voted for him as I could see the personality bingle way back when he left the Nats and became IND. He got onto the IND bandwagon and rode it well......until now that is.

But in this seat it was suicide to go with Gillard and I can tell you he won't be standing at the next election...mark my words here and now if you must...!!!

He is off to retirement on the backing of his millions he received from the coal sector...the very sector he derided and protested against here for the last few years.....shame shame shame Windsor.

It will be a Coalition win at the next Fed election and with the same conviction and fury as the NSW election just passed. enough is enough....

On a personal note...I cringe whenever I see the PM meeting other heads of gov....and hear that trill voice and attitude...