Rocky , The next Big Thing ??

IMHO I Think the market has a fair way to go yet .

I bought nice three bedroom highsets mainly in north rocky. mainly 80-100 range. This was second half of last year. Several of them were bought for less than people paid for them in the last boom ( ten years ago ).

From what I've seen , they've probably gone up 20-30 k in the last few months.

If you look at my original chart, prices have roughly doubled in each cycle, from the top of the previous cycle.

I'm expecting ( IMHO ) three bedroom highset in nice areas to get up around 180k.

The demand for units and duplexes has been high up there, and when I was looking I found the returns wern't much better ( if at all ) for units than houses. Maybe duplexes / units have gone up more so are relatively overvalued compared to houses.

Talking to agents up there, they're just getting busier and busier. They would be only to happy to sell anything anyone wants to sell now as there is a shortage of stock.

Personally I think the market has a fair way to go at this stage and and have no intention of selling in rockhampton. Obviously other people will have different views , especially those who didn't buy there in the first place....

See Change
 
Re: when will it peak?

Originally posted by pennyk
For example...

http://www.realestate.com.au/cgi-bi...&f=30&p=10&t=res&ty=&snf=rbs&cu=&fmt=&header=

This property was listed 1 year ago for sale for $195 000 or thereabouts.

So, a $100 000 capital growth in one year is not too bad.
Penny
Click to expand...


penny
I guess we will have to take you word on the listing price 1 yr ago for this particular property.
Asking price today is a different story. It hasn't sold yet and a sale ain't a sale, ain't a sale....The yeild sounds pretty ordinary for Rocky @ that price tho.
Would be interesting to see what it goes for and get some solid data on the previous sale, and, if in fact it was sold for that price at that time.
I might check that data out sometime.

astroboy
 
Penny

67 Edington sold for $189K last year on 9/5/03

Previous sales were on 24/06/96 for $ 170K , and way back on 26/11/76 it sold for $66.5K . ( it was described a a block of flats then so it wasn't just land then ).

Would be interesting to see what it does sell for. I think Steve McKnight has generated interest in blocks of units so that might explain the asking price.

See Change
 
The block of 4 Penny mentioned is now under contract. Having said this I would imagine the sale price is less than $299,950. At 350 per week the gross return for a sale price of 290K is about 6.3%. A 6.3 % return would make a Sydney or Melbourne investor very excited, but this return is nothing to talk about in Rocky.

My recent 2 x 3bed duplex purchase was 190K for 325 per week. (settling next week) With a soon to be rent increase it will return 340 per week. This gives a gross return of more than 9%.

At a 6.3% return for a 340 per week property, the property price would be about $280,000. This would equate to a 47% capital gain on the price I am about to pay for the property.

The above are only figures and actually mean nothing. I don't believe that I have actually made any capital gain on this property but just wanted to make a point about returns. I guess I am trying to say that the returns are fantastic in Rocky if you shop around. AND, returns, particularly for multi-dwelling properties, are directly correlated to prices. AND, returns like 9% are getting difficult to find anywhere (with the exception of tiny outback towns). It stands to reason that the high returns will push up prices. ( Astroboy, please tell me why returns won't push up prices. Quoting past growth rates is like saying that Sydney prices will go up 20% every year in the future because they did so last year. Its unhelpful and means nothing)

Unlike the past where any idiot could make a capital gain by purchasing any property in any location, investors will have to purchase the correct property and think about what they are buying.

Astroboy
You sure are negative about Rocky, which is a good thing in this type of forum. If everyone was of the same view nobody would bother posting anything. Have you had a bad experience in Rocky?? Would you care to share where your portfolio is located?? Do you own any property in Rocky??? Do you own any property in other non-capital cities?
 
Originally posted by Janvid
AND, returns like 9% are getting difficult to find anywhere (with the exception of tiny outback towns). It stands to reason that the high returns will push up prices. ( Astroboy, please tell me why returns won't push up prices. Quoting past growth rates is like saying that Sydney prices will go up 20% every year in the future because they did so last year. Its unhelpful and means nothing)
Astroboy
You sure are negative about Rocky, which is a good thing in this type of forum. If everyone was of the same view nobody would bother posting anything. Have you had a bad experience in Rocky?? Would you care to share where your portfolio is located?? Do you own any property in Rocky??? Do you own any property in other non-capital cities?
Click to expand...

Janvid, see_change and others,

I never doubted or questioned the rental returns available in the area. No bad experiences cause I have never invested there.

Whoa, before you jump on me, I did look at the area some time ago and again not long before SC's original post and chat chats, had relos with IP's there (who have all subsequenlty sold), worked with a number of people who grew up in the area.

And yes, have spent some time there within the last couple of years on a number of occassions most for 1-3 week stints.

Those of you who have bought there see my views as negative, so be it, I don't dismiss any area (especially of this size) lightly.

I did my due dillegence and used my experiences, those of friends, relos and colleagues as as a guide. In addition to REIQ, QLD state government reports, sales figure (historic), future potential infrastructure and industry etc, etc, these are the basis for my decision.

If your research shows different good on you.

I do know that I am the only contributor to this thead who has produced real, verifiable numbers and price variations.
Either QLD state gov. or REIQ or ABS.

REIQ numbers have been on the slide for the last three qtrs or more. Don't dispute my claims of that, contact them, pay the $ and get the results or just see those I have posted in the thread, those who suggest their purchases have gone against the trend must have bought in exceptional pockets.

I don't give a rats what the real estate agents there tell you what is happening in the area. Get the real figures from the REIQ if you want to argue great growth for the area, and post them.

Janvid, I have IP's in non capital cities, some coastal, a couple regional and some in BNE and surrounds. I don't think that is relevent to the thread though.

astroboy
 
Astroboy

Sorry to drag back through earlier parts of this post , but I couldn't let your comment

"I do know that I am the only contributor to this thead who has produced real, verifiable numbers and price variations.
Either QLD state gov. or REIQ or ABS"

go unchallanged.

We all waited for you to produce your stats to show what a crap place rocky was , but when you finally did , I seem to remember that my analysis of your figures , if anything contradicted your statments. In fact I remember your figures showed that rocky was a growing ( slowly I admitt) major service centre in a growing region.

So far you have failed to rebuff my analysis of your original stats.

Please feel free to point out where you have done this. My original post did contain graphs of actual past sales data . I could have posted the stats that these charts represented , but that would have taken several pages, and as the say " a picture paints a thousand words"

see change
 
Astroboy, Janvids question is very relevant because you do come across as someone with an axe to grind.
Why spend so much time and energy knocking a town?.
Maybe you do own a few properties here and there but have you made good over the past couple years honestly?, if not you would hardly be one to listen to.
I have one cheap IP in Rocky and have made big gains with my investment decisions so far, and I don`t see any reason why the bottom end properties in Rocky may not go up by a fair margin in the next 12 months.
Property prices have not moved for ten yrs or more in Rocky and that is the best reason of all to buy there right now.;)

I just got back from a trip to Rocky and went through Gladstone on the way, Gladstone so I hear has boomed yet it`s very industrial and swampy (to be honest the place stinks of mud), and I see no reason why Rocky wouldn`t be in a similar price range.
 
Thank you markpatric

Finally someone that supports something I have said. Where do I send the $50.00 note????

Good point though. Astroboy - put your money where your mouth is. I now have 25 IP's (although this is not blocks of land. It is a mix of houses and unit blocks) and a PPR, all of which have been purchased using capital gains from previous purchases. What's your story?
 
Janvid, you have obviously done well, from your early posts around September last year (09/2003) you were quoting:

from janvid 15% sounds like a dream. Where can you get this return? With returns like this wouldn't you have to be prepared for capital loses over time. If there was any real chance of capital growth with 15 % returns then the properties would be snapped up before hitting the market. And, if this was the case then the prices would increase rapidly and as such the return would be back to less than 10% in no time.
Isn't this just market forces at work??
Having said all of this, the market almost everywhere at the moment is proving all of us wrong - it keeps going up!!

So you have done big things since discovering regional Queensland less than 6 mths ago. 25 plus properties, in a short time, a rival for Brenda no doubt.
Good luck to you.
Now you request :

from janvid Astroboy - put your money where your mouth is. I now have 25 IP's (although this is not blocks of land. It is a mix of houses and unit blocks) and a PPR, all of which have been purchased using capital gains from previous purchases. What's your story?

Why you feel I should disclose my efforts I’m unsure, is this a mine is bigger than yours contest we have going here ?

My only question/doubt in this entire thread was S_C’s comment that great capital gains were poised for the area in a short period of time i.e. less than 6 months. As we are all aware this thread commenced with this statement from See_Change

from See_Change In previous cycles Rocky has moved more slowly , but given the interest in High yield properties, and the speed the previously mentioned places have moved, I expect rocky to move 30-50 % in a fairly short period of time. It has already started moving.

Bear with me please.

Markpatric, you are a relatively newcomer on the scene, joined 10/01/2004, a house painter of 20 years, if you started your apprenticeship at 16, you are late 30’s. You have one low end property at Rocky and another at Bundaburg that I am aware of…. Hmmm….. Yet you you ask

from markpatrick. Maybe you do own a few properties here and there but have you made good over the past couple years honestly?, if not you would hardly be one to listen to.

Well, what makes you think I would share this with you?

And this gem:

from markpatrick. I personally believe Rocky is going to skyrocket....why?...... because everywhere I buy does!.

Well that does it for me then! Well researched justification markpatrick.

If I were to post numbers to pacify you and janvid, would that satisfy you or would you just dispute the numbers accusing me of falsifying them to win an argument?

Should we just all scan and post copies of contracts of sale?

I don’t think any one of us would agree to that.


for the sake of the discussion and without mrevealling too much.
I have been investing in property for more than 10 yrs now; I have NSW coastal properties that, over that period, would make the great gains seen in SEQ over the last couple of years blush into inconsequence.

I have invested in SEQ for the last few years.
I have invested in what I term SEQ (read Brisbane) regionals i.e. Ipswich for the last 2.5 years and I think we all know where that has gone.
I have invested in Brisbane inner-city and Brisbane bayside, for the last 4 yrs and as recently as this month as a matter of fact.

Now finally, See_Change, I know you have been around on this forum for longer than I, and, I know you are a serious property investor.

The only comment I ever held in question was that of short term 30-50% capital gains in Rockhampton.

Simple.

I believe I have posted REIQ stats (identified and verifiable) that indicate very ordinary price growth for the last four quarters now, yes, that’s one year, but you guys insist prices are onward and upward but won’t give any verifiable source for those figures.

I give up.

As I have previously posted
The REIQ figures for houses for the Rockhampton LGA are as follows:

Dec. qtr 2002: +3.81%
Mar. qtr 2003: +0.92%
June qtr 2003: -1.82%
Sept qtr 2003: -1.90%

See_Change you already commented

Originally posted by see_change

Rockhampton has moved . About 10- 15 % since I bought. I still think it has a way to go. 10/11/2003

I have bought Average properties ( for their area) in the last 2-3 months that have increased their value by 20% on their purchase price. 11/11/2003

Which one is it? 10 or 20% Or do you wish to avoid those questions yet again?

Both satements fly in the face of official REIQ figures.

I do give up.

I don’t wan’t to give this thread any more momentum that it already undeservedly has.

Astroboy. Over and out.
 
Gee, Maybe I made a mistake Astroboy re my figures when you quote me say one day 10-15 % and the next day 20 %, but I actually know the reason for the difference between the figures.

I think you have pointed them out before and I can't remember if I replied to you at that stage , or whether I felt that if that was the only flaw in my posts that you could find out , then I must be going ok.

At the moment I can't be bothered going through the post to see if I have given the reason for the difference before , so I apologise to people if I am repeating myself. :)

When I posted the figures on the tenth , I was basing my figures on my previous dicussions with REA's in the area. As I was writing the post I realised that I hadn't talked to anyone up there for a short period of time , so the next day , I rang up several agents in ROckhampton who I know and trust and asked them what was happening in rockhampton at that stage.

The figure I quoted on the 11th were based on the discussions which happened between the two posts.

Do I believe REIQ figures? I think they give you a rough guide to what is going on in areas and over a long term time frame will acurately reflect what HAS happened , but as every active member on this forum will tell you , they often can give an inacutrate picture on what is happening over a shorter time frame .

Anyone who has properties in recently fast moving areas such as logan , ipswich , caboulture will tell you that they almost always seem to vastly under reflect what is going on. Most of the areas I've mentioned have doubled in the last year, but I have yet to see ANY "official " figures that accurately reflect the changes in these areas. I Believe the same thing is happening in Rockhampton.

All I can report on is what I'm being told by people in rockhampton whose judgement I have come to trust over the last year.

See Change
 
Astroboy AKA Rocky

Astroboy

Was having a talk in the chat room about your persistence on the topic of Rockhampton.

I started talking in boxing terms.

I felt your persistence and tenacity would keep you in good stead as a property investor.

Someone ( unnamed ) said you persistence reminded them of that fictional Boxer , so well played by Sylvester Stallone , ie the Italian Stallion, or better known as " Rocky "

Have you ever thought of changing you nick :D

See Change
 
Last edited:
My comments about the growth in Rocky.

I have said before that I do not place any faith in the stats. I guage prices by following local property guides. Some time around September last year I started getting the Rocky Saturday property guide. I have been following the asking price of real estate in Rocky religiously since.

There is no doubt that prices have moved up since September last year. Houses around 80 to 90K were common last year. Cheapies were 60 to 80K. As of last Saturday it was the exception to the rule to find a house under 100K. There may have been 3 or 4 for sale under 100k on Saturday, mostly 2 bedroom old timber small blocks etc. I recall one Saturday a few weeks ago where there was nothing under 100K.

Forget the Stats, read the paper each week and over time you will know the market as well as the agents.

astroboy - the Stats saying that prices have not moved are simply wrong, to quote a phrase "end of argument".

Its not the mine is bigger than yours argument. Its just that if one is having an argument with someone its nice to believe that the person is a serious investor and not a 16 year old computer nerd pretending to be someone else. Since joining the forum I have never held back about personal info. What do I care, there is only one other member of this forum who actually knows me. And in any event, the more I believe that this forum is used by succesful people, the more I will take note of the info.

Don't despair, you are not under attack. Your comments, whether negative or positive are of value to this forum.

"A NEGATIVE POST OR EVEN AN INSULT OR ABUSE IS A THOUSAND TIMES BETTER THAN NO POST AT ALL"
 
Markpatric,
Dont worry 1%what other investors think and say
if you are happy with your own judgements,and
financial situation then thats all that matters.
sometimes you can see straight through the lines
i just sometimes wonder how many actually own property in this forum and how many just want to pretend to be someone important..
good luck
willair..
 
Originally posted by markpatric
Time will tell with regard to Rocky.
I have a ppor but the jury is still out.

Good luck
Click to expand...

Sorry markpatrick, I don't understand this post, your location suggests Brisbane, are you saying your ppor is in rocky ?


See_Change, I appreciate the chat comments, I'll that as a compliment ;)

Dont worry 1%what other investors think and say
if you are happy with your own judgements,and
financial situation then thats all that matters.
sometimes you can see straight through the lines
i just sometimes wonder how many actually own property in this forum and how many just want to pretend to be someone important..
good luck
willair..

willair, you are obviously referring to me here, I don't 'pretend' to anything.
Perhaps you can suggest a method of resolving this dilemma ?

Just how do we prove just who owns what, who is a millionaire and who isn't. Who walks, drives looks and thinks and who researches, looks, looks some more and buys ?

Simply because my research of an area show my interpretation of the areas fundamentals don't come up to scratch in my opinion does not correlate into I have no property and am a pretender, surely ?

Do you think that 'vestor has no property interests because in his opinion redfern ain't the place to be ?

Perhaps its time for contracts of sale and borrowing capacity at 50 paces :D

astroboy

damn I didn't want to revisit this thread.
 
Last edited:
Originally posted by astroboy


See_Change, I appreciate the chat comments, I'll that as a compliment ;)
Click to expand...

It was meant as a compliment :)

At the picnic , sim made the comment about this post, that while we disagree, at least the tone of the post had remained restrained compared to some of the posts and the arguements had actually addressed the points raised.

What's the point of having a forum if we spend all our time sitting around saying what wonderfull people we are , and then all nod in agreement.

The forum needs to provide education , but also healthy debate.

See Change
 
Astroboy,
To tell you in simple terms,i quite like the way you post
thats the best part of `healthy debate everyones different
some people have to see that good to understand the bad,
as for the millionaire part i dont think its a lot of money anymore
it was 13 years ago not now,as for the courage to overcome obstacles it all come down to one thing, Recognition of Opportunity..
and in whos eyes they are seen.
good luck
willair..
 
Sorry markpatrick, I don't understand this post, your location suggests Brisbane, are you saying your ppor is in rocky ?


I own acreage in West Brisbane.
 
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