Whitewash election?

[D.T.]

Watching the election coverage on TV, its still very early days (WA people still have another ~80 minutes to vote). Some seats on the east coast only have about 2% of votes counted so far, but... all electorates Ive seen mention of so far are heavily trending towards labor doing worse than Australia did in the Ashes

So trivia time - whats been the biggest ever margin in an Australian election?

Also, in hindsight, do you think,
1) Gillard regrets calling the election so early (in January wasnt it, that she called it for Sept)
2) Gillard regrets knifing Kev in the back? (ie would labor be doing better this election if Rudd had seen out the whole course)

Also quite amusing. They crossed live to 'Albo' who complained about the media coverage treating them unfairly and Jeff Kennett responded with "Australians had made up their mind 12 months ago anyways".

 

[datto]

I thought Gillard wanted the election on Sept 14.

I dont think she regrets knifing Kevin. She's probally still over the moon about it.

When Tony gets in power, look out!

If he gets control of the senate.... look out even more, ordinary Australians!

 

[MarkB]

Gillard regrets knifing Kev in the back?

Afaik, Julia didn't knife Kevin. Kevin's unpopularity was such that he lost the support of key figures / factions within the ALP and days were numbered. Julia was #2 on the list.

Would labor be doing better this election if Rudd had seen out the whole course)

That the ALP retained power after the 2010 election was a minor political miracle (albeit one that relied on the support of mostly whack-job MPs on the cross benches).

The polls suggested very strongly that Kevin Rudd would have been slammed badly in the 2010 election. So without a change in leadership, the ALP would have lost and he (Rudd) would have been the only elected / then defeated one-term PM in recent memory.

He is extremely fortunate to have avoided that fate imo (though he could be argued that today's electoral enema is a fitting end to his time as PM, and when you cobble his two stints together they really only amount to one term).

 

[The Fence]

Mushy......where are youuuuuu?

Whitewash alright.

The people have voted and the last 6 years of Labor incompetence has been dealt with justly.

Now it's time to move on and get things back on track.

My seat of New England is an absolute landslide to Nationals and its now apparent why Windsor didn't run again. Was always the case after he shafted his electorate. That's what you get for being vindictive. Very sad indeed as once upon a time I had some respect for Windsor.

 

[Hoffy]

Afaik, Julia didn't knife Kevin. Kevin's unpopularity was such that he lost the support of key figures / factions within the ALP and days were numbered. Julia was #2 on the list.



That the ALP retained power after the 2010 election was a minor political miracle (albeit one that relied on the support of mostly whack-job MPs on the cross benches).

The polls suggested very strongly that Kevin Rudd would have been slammed badly in the 2010 election. So without a change in leadership, the ALP would have lost and he (Rudd) would have been the only elected / then defeated one-term PM in recent memory.

He is extremely fortunate to have avoided that fate imo (though he could be argued that today's electoral enema is a fitting end to his time as PM, and when you cobble his two stints together they really only amount to one term).

This notion seems to be creeping in as accepted wisdom when in fact the opposite was true.

Polls were in favor of the ALP in 2010. They won nearly every single opinion poll for first preference and 2PP and preferred PM for the entire 3 year period post 2007 election. Things narrowed closer to the vote but labor were still ahead.

The minor miracle was the extraordinary result achieved by Abbott.

 

[The Fence]

The minor miracle was the extraordinary result achieved by Abbott.

By Abbott AND his Coalition team.

We are not a republic yet so it's not presidential.

This focus on the leaders as the sole decision makers is off.

The more people focus on a leader than instead of the party, the more frustrating politics becomes.

 

[BayView]

Mushy......where are youuuuuu?
.

Damn! Beat me to it!

 

[Hoffy]

By Abbott AND his Coalition team.

Kind of goes without saying in my book.

 

[MarkB]

This notion seems to be creeping in as accepted wisdom when in fact the opposite was true. Polls were in favor of the ALP in 2010.

@ Hoffy

Whose polls?

According to the media, certainly not the ALPs....


Defiant Rudd Clings onto Power
The Daily Telegraph, 23 June 2010 [the day before the spill]

But while he [Rudd] spoke confidently to reporters, Labor MPs have turned against the Prime Minister - distressed by internal polling that shows the Government heading for electoral annihilation.

Senior Labor MPs have conceded that the ALP's primary vote has dropped below 30 per cent in some key marginal seats, including on the NSW central coast.

Mr Rudd's expected removal as Prime Minister within a term of being elected would be unprecedented. But it follows a series of backflips and policy slip-ups that have eroded public confidence - and driven Labor MPs to decide that his position was no longer tenable.

It has become apparent to me in the course of the last period of time ... that a number of factional leaders in the Labor party no longer support my leadership," Mr Rudd said.

"That is why it is imperative this matter be resolved."

The minor miracle was the extraordinary result achieved by Abbott.

Agreed...

Though, it was a minor miracle for all concerned...,

1 - that the ALP managed to actually get a 2nd term

2 - that Abbott so very nearly prevented them from it.

 

[Crabnet]

Lost a few in Tasmania.
Lost a few in Victoria with the loss of the home state PM.
Last one perhaps in SA
Lost a few in NSW.
By the looks of it not much change in QLD with the home state PM having an effect perhaps.
Large Palmer vote upsetting the swings because they don't know where the preferences go.
Palmer might actually win a seat and Katter in trouble.
So maybe not the landslide that the Australian was predicting.

The Libs Mirrabella in trouble to an independent as predicted.

 

[Hoffy]

@ Hoffy

Whose polls?

According to the media, certainly not the ALPs....


Defiant Rudd Clings onto Power
The Daily Telegraph, 23 June 2010 [the day before the spill]

But while he [Rudd] spoke confidently to reporters, Labor MPs have turned against the Prime Minister - distressed by internal polling that shows the Government heading for electoral annihilation.

Senior Labor MPs have conceded that the ALP's primary vote has dropped below 30 per cent in some key marginal seats, including on the NSW central coast.

Mr Rudd's expected removal as Prime Minister within a term of being elected would be unprecedented. But it follows a series of backflips and policy slip-ups that have eroded public confidence - and driven Labor MPs to decide that his position was no longer tenable.

It has become apparent to me in the course of the last period of time ... that a number of factional leaders in the Labor party no longer support my leadership," Mr Rudd said.

"That is why it is imperative this matter be resolved."






Agreed...

Though, it was a minor miracle for all concerned...,

1 - that the ALP managed to actually get a 2nd term

2 - that Abbott so very nearly prevented them from it.

All 3 major polls. For 3 years, every fortnight/month.

When Kev was ousted by Paul Howes, the ALP were ahead 2PP 53/47 and he was ahead of Abbott as preferred PM 46/37. Maybe the ALP had special foresight not bestowed on all the polling houses and the bookies, or maybe the AWU just wanted their person in the seat ahead of an expected victory....

Regardless, the switch to Gillard provided a boost to their fortunes leading to expectations of electoral victory. No one was predicting a coalition victory.

 

[MarkB]

All 3 major polls. For 3 years, every fortnight/month.

Thanks, I look forward to the links....

* * *​

Newspoll puts Coalition 51 - 49 over ALP in May 2010

* * *​

The Age (May 2010) had this to say:

Rudd's ratings hit freefall

Prime Minister Kevin Rudd's approval ratings have plummeted in recent weeks. Fairfax political writers explain why we may soon see Prime Minister Gillard

The only satisfaction that Rudd and his government can take from this poll is that Abbott's opposition hasn't gained any momentum, and that Rudd remains preferred prime minister by 15 points (albeit suffering a fall of 10 points). But even with the opposition failing to improve its primary vote, the figures still leave Labor and the opposition both with 50 per cent on a two-party preferred basis, and the Coalition five points ahead on primary votes.

With only a few months until an election, Rudd and Labor are heading in precisely the opposite direction to that which they might have hoped, even if the opposition is stalled. Rudd's backbench will be getting nervous, which means he will be, too. A bitter winter is setting in early

* * *​

Now, after a two-year dream run as Australia's most popular prime minister in decades, his fortunes have crashed to the point where polls show that his center-left Labor government could fall at the next election, expected in a few months
See: Washington Post - 15 June 2010

 

[Strannik]

don't think it will be a whitewash.
probably 20 seats difference or around so

 

[Arnoldus]

It looks like Labor has avoided a smashing on a scale that they experienced in the Queensland State Election. I hope they can find some sense of unity and act like an opposition should.

On the Rudd vs Gillard thing, I think they should've stuck with Rudd in 2010, regardless of wether the polls were pointing to defeat. The damage caused by knifing Rudd lasts much longer than the 2010 election and this one, and knifing Gillard 9 weeks ago will sting for much longer than the next election.

On what Abbotts promised in his campaign, I don't see much difference between the Libs and Labor, but then I thought the same thing about the LNP winning the Qld election. I get the feeling the promised Commission of Audit at the Federal level will be similar to the state one, and you'll see some pretty epic cuts and reforms to government departments and service delivery and a big bucket of mud to be tipped on labor in the process to sell it to the public.

 

[Crabnet]

Seeing that it's not a whitewash i wonder how the senate numbers will turn out.
Perhaps it will be a house of review still rather than a rubber stamp.

 

[MarkB]

All 3 major polls. For 3 years, every fortnight/month

Never mind, I found the links.

See: Wikipedia...

Yes he did lead the 3 major polls......but look what happens around the middle of 2010 (an election year, remember).....

His ratings started to sink like the Titanic....

Enter stage left the ALP Powerbrokers....

They didn't think he was going to be re-elected. And the evidence would tend to suggest that as well.

 

[Strannik]

Seeing that it's not a whitewash i wonder how the senate numbers will turn out.
Perhaps it will be a house of review still rather than a rubber stamp.

i think senate was safe for labor in any case, they only reelect half of it

 

[cimbom]

Pretty happy with the Greens having a total of 11 seats in the Senate so far

 

[Crabnet]

i think senate was safe for labor in any case, they only reelect half of it

There may be more minor parties and independents elected.

 

[Strannik]

most of them side with labor though.

i can't see greens working together with LNP (unless LNP goes insane and reverses their crucial policies)